Resort City Real Estate Land Value Predictive Cycle

This is a predictive cycle that describes the stages of commercial Real Estate investment within a small resort community.  The pattern is repetitive throughout time.  The viewer can make a determination as to where they reside within the cycle at any given time. 

The primary driver is a producer - often described as the newer person in the poker game with money to play.  The season of revenue is a short three month burst and then a substantial halt due to the low local population level.

The producer reveals opportunity by stating the principle of highest best use.  The Producer converts residential property to commercial along the main street and makes an excessive fairly permanent investment in buildings. 

The Producer is now confronted with a short season with a low local population resulting in vacant property with deteriorating improvements.  The Producer now understands the principle of diminishing marginal returns.  This means the added cost to upgrade the property does not produce a corresponding increase in value. 

It is at this point the Producer employs the principle of assemblage.  The Producer attempts to purchase adjacent property and call it one tract of land. 

Once the adjacent property is purchased the Producer declares plottage - which is an increase of value for the land being formed by assemblage.

The plottage can favorably effect the record for the Market value, Book value, Insurance value, and Tax assessed value.  This is a prime time to present the Real Estate to another Producer. 

So the cycle unfolds as:
 Producer- investor
Highest best use
Diminishing marginal returns
Assemblage
Plottage

find a new Producer

Can you see where activity within your community falls within the predictive cycle? 

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